应用马尔科夫模型的方法对呼和浩特-五原地震亚带危险性估计

ASSESSMENT OF HUHEHOT-WUYUAN SEISMIC SUB-ZONE RISK BY MALKOV MODEL METHOD

摘要: 本文运用马尔科夫模型的方法对呼和浩特-五原地震亚带的危险性进行了估计。认为该地区从1984起,十年内至少发生一次M_s≥6.3级地震的概率为50.1%;至少发生一次M_s≥6.0级地震的概率为88.1%。

Abstract: In this paper, Huhehot-Wuyuan seismic sub-zone risk is assessed by Malkov model mnethod. It is considered that in this area, in the next ten years beginning from 1984, the probability of occurrence of at lest one earthquake of M_s≥6.3 is 50.1%; the probability of at lest one earthquake with M_s≥6.0 is 88.1%.