华北强震的时间间隔及概率估计

ESTIMATION TO TIME INTERVAL AND PROBABILITY OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE NORTH CHINA

摘要: 根据华北地区第四地震活动期以来Ms≥6.0级强震目录资料, 研究并给出了其地震活动幕强震(系指Ms≥6.0地震, 下同)发生的概率统计数学模型。通过3种数理统计方法检验, 表明该模型是可信的, 这对于分析判断未来华北地区强震危险性具有一定实际意义。

Abstract: Based on the Ms≥6.0 strong earthquake records since fourth seismic active period in North China area, a probability statistical model for the occurrence of strong earthquake (over 6.0)in seismic active period is presented.Tested with 3 mathematical methods, it shows that the model is credible.