习聪望，袁志祥，惠少兴，等. 基于地形因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型探讨—以云南省为例[J]. 华北地震科学，2023, 41（4）：38-43. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.005.
引用本文: 习聪望，袁志祥，惠少兴，等. 基于地形因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型探讨—以云南省为例[J]. 华北地震科学，2023, 41（4）：38-43. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.005.
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XI Congwang，YUAN Zhixiang，HUI Shaoxing，et al. The Evaluation Models of Injuries and Deaths of Earthquake Disasters Based on the Terrain Factors in Yunnan Province[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences，2023, 41（4）：38-43. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.005.
Citation: XI Congwang，YUAN Zhixiang，HUI Shaoxing，et al. The Evaluation Models of Injuries and Deaths of Earthquake Disasters Based on the Terrain Factors in Yunnan Province[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences，2023, 41（4）：38-43. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.005.
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基于地形因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型探讨—以云南省为例

The Evaluation Models of Injuries and Deaths of Earthquake Disasters Based on the Terrain Factors in Yunnan Province

    摘要
  • 摘要: 以云南省为例，利用1976－2020年云南省5级以上历史震害资料，采用线性拟合和多项式拟合的方法计算得到了云南地区地震灾害伤亡人数的预测模型，分析地震伤亡人数与震级、烈度、高程、坡度、起伏度和森林覆盖率的相关性。结果表明,当地震震级大小在（5,7之间时伤亡人数主要受烈度、震级、高程、起伏度、坡度和森林覆盖率的影响；当地震震级大小在（7,8之间时伤亡人数主要受烈度、震级、高程、起伏度的影响，与坡度和森林覆盖率因素相关性很小。通过评估模型计算得到模拟地震伤亡人数，与实际伤亡人数进行线性回归检验，检验结果显示建立的模型基本能够适用于云南省地震灾害伤亡人数的预测。

     

    Abstract: Based on the historical earthquake damage data with earthquake magnitude greater than 5 from 1976 to 2020, we calculated the evaluation models of injuries and deaths of earthquake disasters in Yunnan Province by linear fitting and polynomial fitting methods. The correlation between earthquake casualties and earthquake magnitude, intensity, elevation, slope, relief and forest cover in Yunnan Province was analyzed. It is found that the casualties are mainly affected by intensity, magnitude, elevation, relief, slope and forest cover with earthquake magnitude between 5 and 7. When the earthquake magnitude is between 7 and 8, the casualties are mainly affected by intensity, magnitude, elevation and relief, and have little correlation with slope and forest cover. The models can be suitable for forecasting the casualties of earthquake disasters in Yunnan province by testing linearity of regression the real injuries and the calculating injuries by evaluation models.

     

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