陈韶金,翟笃林,周浩,等. 基于PSO优化ELM模型的震后直接经济损失评估[J]. 华北地震科学,2023, 41(4):1-7. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.001.
引用本文: 陈韶金,翟笃林,周浩,等. 基于PSO优化ELM模型的震后直接经济损失评估[J]. 华北地震科学,2023, 41(4):1-7. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.001.
CHEN Shaojin,ZHAI Dulin,ZHOU Hao,et al. Post-Earthquake Direct Economic Loss Assessment Model Based on PSO-Optimized ELM[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2023, 41(4):1-7. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.001.
Citation: CHEN Shaojin,ZHAI Dulin,ZHOU Hao,et al. Post-Earthquake Direct Economic Loss Assessment Model Based on PSO-Optimized ELM[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2023, 41(4):1-7. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.04.001.

基于PSO优化ELM模型的震后直接经济损失评估

Post-Earthquake Direct Economic Loss Assessment Model Based on PSO-Optimized ELM

  • 摘要: 选取震级、震中烈度、震中烈度和抗震设防烈度之差、人均GDP、人口密度5个影响因子作为评估指标,筛选出1996—2014年间37个历史地震作为研究样本,构建PSO-ELM震后直接经济损失评估模型。实验表明:PSO-ELM模型预测的平均误差率为13.89%,其平均误差率相比于未优化的ELM和传统的BP网络模型分别降低了14.61%和36.79%;通过分析影响因子的敏感程度,得出人均GDP、人口密度和震中烈度影响最为明显,在震后直接经济损失评估中应该重点关注。综上,PSO-ELM模型具有精度高和泛化能力强等优点,可在实际案例中推广使用。

     

    Abstract: Scientific and accurate assessment of direct post-earthquake economic losses is important for reducing post-earthquake economic losses and developing emergency rescue plans quickly. In this paper, five factors were selected as assessment indexes: earthquake magnitude, epicenter intensity, the difference between epicenter intensity and seismic intensity, per capita GDP, and population density. Thirty-seven historical earthquake cases from 1996 to 2014 were chosen as research samples to construct the PSO-ELM post-earthquake direct economic loss assessment model. The experiments showed that the average error rate of the PSO-ELM model prediction was 13.89%, which reduced by 14.61% compared with the unoptimized ELM and 36.79% compared with the traditional BP network model. By analyzing the sensitivity of each influencing factor, it was concluded that per capita GDP, population density, and epicenter intensity had the most significant influence and should be focused on during post-earthquake direct economic loss assessment. In summary, the PSO-ELM model has the advantages of high accuracy and strong generalization ability and can be promoted and used in practical cases.

     

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