华北地区震群活动与强震

薛艳; 陈琳荣; 黎明晓; 刘双庆

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2017.02.001

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华北地区震群活动与强震

薛艳, 陈琳荣, 黎明晓, 刘双庆

文章导航 > 华北地震科学 > 2017 > 35(2): 1-9

薛艳, 陈琳荣, 黎明晓, 刘双庆. 华北地区震群活动与强震[J]. 华北地震科学, 2017, 35(2): 1-9. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2017.02.001

引用本文:

薛艳, 陈琳荣, 黎明晓, 刘双庆. 华北地区震群活动与强震[J]. 华北地震科学, 2017, 35(2): 1-9. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2017.02.001

XUE Yan, CHEN Lin-rong, LI Ming-xiao, LIU Shuang-qing. Relationship between Earthquake Swarms and the Strong Earthquake in North China[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2017, 35(2): 1-9. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2017.02.001

Citation:

XUE Yan, CHEN Lin-rong, LI Ming-xiao, LIU Shuang-qing. Relationship between Earthquake Swarms and the Strong Earthquake in North China[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2017, 35(2): 1-9. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2017.02.001

华北地区震群活动与强震

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2017.02.001

1.
中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045;
2.
吉林省地震局工程地震研究所, 长春 130022;
3.
天津市地震局, 天津 300201

基金项目: 地震科技星火计划项目“全球巨大地震前地震活动及序列演化特征研究”（XH17048）；震情跟踪项目“华北地区6级以上地震危险性研究”（2017020504）

详细信息

作者简介:
薛艳(1969-),女,北京人,高级工程师,现主要从事地震预测研究.E-mail:xueyan5619@seis.ac.cn

中图分类号: P315.2

Relationship between Earthquake Swarms and the Strong Earthquake in North China

1.
China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;
2.
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, Earthquake Administration of Jilin Province, 130022, China;
3.
Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China

摘要: 通过系统研究华北地区震群活动与强震的关系，发现：①震群活动与区域强震关系密切，小震群频度的起伏可以反映区域地震活动水平的强弱；②华北地区M_L≥2.0震群半年累积频度N≥8可以作为区域M_S≥5.7地震的预测指标，预测时间为异常出现后的10个月内，预测效能评分R=0.615，大于具有97.5%置信水平的R₀（0.437）；③震群频度指标可以通过Molchan模型检验，对于不同强度的目标地震（M_S≥5.0、M_S≥5.5与M_S≥5.7地震），其预测效能均好于Poisson模型，其中60%目标地震的预测概率增益可以达到2～4水平；④区域震群对强震地点的预测意义有限：在张北6.2级、瑞昌5.7级与前郭5.8级地震前2年，与强震相关的构造带震群活跃；震前中短期阶段（2～10个月），震群向震中及周边迁移；而对其余4次强震，震群对发震地点没有指示意义。
- 华北地区 /
- 震群 /
- 强震 /
- 统计检验 /
- 预测指标
Abstract: The relationship between earthquake swarms and the strong earthquake in North China has been studied, the results show:①Earthquake swarm activity is closely related to regional strong earthquakes, and the frequency of small swarms can reflect the level of regional seismic activity. ②The half year cumulative frequency of M_L ≥ 2.0 swarms great than or equal to 8 can be used as a predictive index of M_S ≥ 5.7 earthquakes. The prediction time is 10 months after the appearance of the anomaly. The value of the predictive efficacy score R is 0.615, greater than that of R0, 0.437, with a 97.5% confidence level. ③Frequency index of earthquake swarms can be tested by Molchan model. For target earthquakes with M_S ≥ 5.0,M_S ≥ 5.5 and M_S ≥ 5.7 respectively, the predicted results are all better than the Poisson model. The prediction probability gain can be achieved 2~4 for the 60% of the target earthquakes especially. ④The place prediction of earthquake swarms to the strong earthquake is limited. Two years before the Zhangbei M_S6.2, Ruichang M_S5.7 and Qianguo M_S5.8 earthquake, swarms are mainly active in the vicinity of the tectonic zones associated with the strong earthquake. While they migrate to the epicenter and the surrounding area 2 months to 10 months before the strong earthquake. But for the rest strong earthquakes, the place prediction of swarms is not significant.
- North China /
- earthquake swarm /
- strong earthquake /
- statistical test /
- prediction index

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[1]	张帆, 韩晓明, 李娟, 徐岩, 王磊, 杨红樱, 胡博. 内蒙古乌拉特后旗—临河地区地震活动的预测效能评估 . 华北地震科学, 2018, 36(3): 35-39. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2018.03.005
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华北地区震群活动与强震

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2017.02.001

1. 中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045;

2. 吉林省地震局工程地震研究所, 长春 130022;

3. 天津市地震局, 天津 300201

作者简介:
薛艳(1969-),女,北京人,高级工程师,现主要从事地震预测研究.E-mail:xueyan5619@seis.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2017-02-08
刊出日期: 2017-06-15

中图分类号: P315.2

关键词:

华北地区 /

震群 /

强震 /

统计检验 /

预测指标

摘要: 通过系统研究华北地区震群活动与强震的关系，发现：①震群活动与区域强震关系密切，小震群频度的起伏可以反映区域地震活动水平的强弱；②华北地区M_L≥2.0震群半年累积频度N≥8可以作为区域M_S≥5.7地震的预测指标，预测时间为异常出现后的10个月内，预测效能评分R=0.615，大于具有97.5%置信水平的R₀（0.437）；③震群频度指标可以通过Molchan模型检验，对于不同强度的目标地震（M_S≥5.0、M_S≥5.5与M_S≥5.7地震），其预测效能均好于Poisson模型，其中60%目标地震的预测概率增益可以达到2～4水平；④区域震群对强震地点的预测意义有限：在张北6.2级、瑞昌5.7级与前郭5.8级地震前2年，与强震相关的构造带震群活跃；震前中短期阶段（2～10个月），震群向震中及周边迁移；而对其余4次强震，震群对发震地点没有指示意义。

English Abstract

Relationship between Earthquake Swarms and the Strong Earthquake in North China

1. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;

2. Institute of Engineering Mechanics, Earthquake Administration of Jilin Province, 130022, China;

3. Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China

Received Date: 2017-02-08
Publish Date: 2017-06-15

Keywords:

Abstract: The relationship between earthquake swarms and the strong earthquake in North China has been studied, the results show:①Earthquake swarm activity is closely related to regional strong earthquakes, and the frequency of small swarms can reflect the level of regional seismic activity. ②The half year cumulative frequency of M_L ≥ 2.0 swarms great than or equal to 8 can be used as a predictive index of M_S ≥ 5.7 earthquakes. The prediction time is 10 months after the appearance of the anomaly. The value of the predictive efficacy score R is 0.615, greater than that of R0, 0.437, with a 97.5% confidence level. ③Frequency index of earthquake swarms can be tested by Molchan model. For target earthquakes with M_S ≥ 5.0,M_S ≥ 5.5 and M_S ≥ 5.7 respectively, the predicted results are all better than the Poisson model. The prediction probability gain can be achieved 2~4 for the 60% of the target earthquakes especially. ④The place prediction of earthquake swarms to the strong earthquake is limited. Two years before the Zhangbei M_S6.2, Ruichang M_S5.7 and Qianguo M_S5.8 earthquake, swarms are mainly active in the vicinity of the tectonic zones associated with the strong earthquake. While they migrate to the epicenter and the surrounding area 2 months to 10 months before the strong earthquake. But for the rest strong earthquakes, the place prediction of swarms is not significant.