李瑛, 延军平. 近40年菲律宾MS≥7级地震时空结构及未来趋势再判断[J]. 华北地震科学, 2014, 32(2): 14-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2014.02.003
引用本文: 李瑛, 延军平. 近40年菲律宾MS≥7级地震时空结构及未来趋势再判断[J]. 华北地震科学, 2014, 32(2): 14-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2014.02.003
LI Ying, YAN Jun-ping. SPACE-TIME STRUCTURE OF MS7 EARTHQUAKE IN RECENT 40 YEARS IN THE PHILIPPINES AND ITS FUTURE TREND[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2014, 32(2): 14-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2014.02.003
Citation: LI Ying, YAN Jun-ping. SPACE-TIME STRUCTURE OF MS7 EARTHQUAKE IN RECENT 40 YEARS IN THE PHILIPPINES AND ITS FUTURE TREND[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2014, 32(2): 14-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2014.02.003

近40年菲律宾MS≥7级地震时空结构及未来趋势再判断

SPACE-TIME STRUCTURE OF MS7 EARTHQUAKE IN RECENT 40 YEARS IN THE PHILIPPINES AND ITS FUTURE TREND

  • 摘要: 整理了近40年菲律宾MS≥7级地震公开的灾害数据,采用可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图、可公度结构系等方法分析判断未来地震的时间;利用相邻地震震源经、纬度差变化分析震中的空间迁移;并利用震中经向、纬向迁移进行佐证,实现对其时空结构的未来趋势判断。通过判断发现菲律宾MS≥7级地震在2014年、2015年发生的信号较强;未来地震震中可能会在2013年10月15日菲律宾地震震中的东北方向,空间位置大致在9.8°N以北,126.704°E以东。菲律宾MS≥7级地震与地球自转速度变化有一定的关系,减速期发生地震的可能性更大,且速率转换的时间越长越易发生地震;同时发现太阳活动处于活跃强烈期内时,太阳黑子峰值、次峰值前后发生地震的概率很大。目前地球自转正处于减速期、太阳活动处于太阳黑子第24周期极大年附近,所以2014-2015年菲律宾发生MS≥7级地震的可能性很大。

     

    Abstract: Based on MS≥7 earthquakes data of Philippines in recent 40 years,using methods like commensurable calculation,map of butterfly structure and commensurable structure,this paper analyses MS≥7 earthquakes activity in the Philippines and its future trends.The result shows that Philippines MS≥7 earthquakes in 2014,2015 send stronger signals,the future epicenters may be in the northeast of the epicenter of the October 15,2013 Philippines earthquake,about in the north of 9.8°N,in the east of 126.704° E.Philippines MS≥7 earthquake has a certain relationship with the earth's change of the rotation speed, and the possibility is higher in the deceleration phase,and the longer conversion,the more possible earthquakes happen.It is also found that when solar activity is in the strong active period,sunspots before and after the peak,the probability of an earthquake is very big.Now,Earth rotation is in the deceleration stage,solar activity is in the 24 sunspot cycle which is near the Great Years,so in 2014-2015,the possibility of MS≥7 earthquakes in Philippines is very big.

     

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