余震预报探索——自然类比法
THE STUDY FOR AFTERSHOCK PREDICTION——NATURAL ANALOGISM
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摘要: 本文提出了一种新的余震预报方法——自然类比法。以存入磁盘的85个序列目录为基础,把新发生的地震最初两、三天的应变能释放分布情况与大量已知地震的同期惜况逐一加以比较,用柯尔莫哥洛夫(kolmogorov)-斯米尔诺夫(Smirnov)检验确定最相似的一个已知地震,根据这个已知地震序列的特点来估计新发生地震未来的余震情况。文中给出了内符的实例,并对存在的问题进行了讨论。Abstract: We present a new method to predict aftershocks——natural analogism. Based on 85 earthquake sequences stored on disks, the distribution of strain energy release within the initial three days after a newly ocurred earthquake is compared with that of many known earthquake sequences one by one, and the most similar known earthquake is determined with Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Based on this known thquake, the coming aftershocks of a newly occurred earthquake sequence can be estimated. Some examples are given and a few questions are discussed in the paper.
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[1] 陆远忠等,地震预报的地震学方法,151-167,地震出版社,1985. [2] 复旦大学,概率论,第二册,数理统计第二分册,264-273,人民教育出版社,1981. -

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