黄德瑜, 林命週, 张宇霞. 华北与西南地区b值时空扫描地震预测效能的模糊评定[J]. 华北地震科学, 1987, 5(3): 28-34.
引用本文: 黄德瑜, 林命週, 张宇霞. 华北与西南地区b值时空扫描地震预测效能的模糊评定[J]. 华北地震科学, 1987, 5(3): 28-34.
Huang Deyu, Lin Mingzhou, Zhang Yuxia. FUZZY EVALUATION ON THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIVE EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON TIME AND SPACE SCANNING OF B-VALUE IN NORTH AND SOUTHWEST CHINA[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1987, 5(3): 28-34.
Citation: Huang Deyu, Lin Mingzhou, Zhang Yuxia. FUZZY EVALUATION ON THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIVE EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON TIME AND SPACE SCANNING OF B-VALUE IN NORTH AND SOUTHWEST CHINA[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1987, 5(3): 28-34.

华北与西南地区b值时空扫描地震预测效能的模糊评定

FUZZY EVALUATION ON THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIVE EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON TIME AND SPACE SCANNING OF B-VALUE IN NORTH AND SOUTHWEST CHINA

  • 摘要: 在文献1中,作者对华北、西南地区十多年的地震资料进行了较系统的b值时空扫描研究,并对异常、地震与预报等问题提出了若干规定,初步建立了b值时空扫描方法的预报程式。本文主要对上述研究结果的预报效能进行模糊评分,以探讨b值时扫空描方法的预测能力。模糊评分结果表明,震级、时间和地点的平均贴近度分别为0.34,0.17和0.18;震级、时间和地点的平均清晰变分别为0.68,0.71和0.29。通过模糊评分研究,我们认为该b值时空扫描方法提取了一定的震兆信息,但目前预测能力尚有限。

     

    Abstract: In reference1, a systematic study of b-value scanning on the seis-mological data of over 10 years obtained in East and West China has been carried out, and the fuzzy evaluation on the predictive effectiveness is studied. In conducting fuzzy evaluation, the average closeness of predicted magnitude, time and piece are 0.34, 0.17 and 0.18 respectively.The average clearness are 0.68, 0.71 and 0.29 respectively.#br#The analysis showes that time and space scanning method of b-value is possessed of a certain predictive capability about the three elements of an earthquake, and can be as one of methodologies for medium term prediction, of couse, the predictive ability of this method today is still,limited.

     

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