利用最大熵原理估算山西地震带中强震的重现期和未来100年内中强震的发震概率
USING MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRINCIPLE TO ESTIMATE RETURN PERIODS OF MODERATE-STRONG EARTHQUAES AND PROBABILITES OF OCCURRENCE OF NODERATESTRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE NEXT 100yrs AT SHANXI SEISMIC ZONE
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摘要: 本文利用最大熵原理估算了山西地震带中强震的重现期和未来100年内中强震的发震概率。经计算,五级地震的重现期是16.2年,发震概率是0.998;六级地震的重现期是64.9年,发震概率是0.777;七级地震的重现期是260.4年,发震概率是0.330;大于等于八级地震的重现期是1570.3年,发震概率是0.062。Abstract: This paper, according to the maximum entropy principle, has estimated the return periods and the probability of occurrence of moderace-strong eathquakes at Shanxi seismic zone in the next 100 yrs. Based on the computation, it has concluded that the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 5 is 16.2. yrs. the probability of occurrence is 0.098; the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 6 is 64.9yrs, the probability is 0.777; the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 7 is 260.4yrs, the probability is 0.330; and the return period of earthquakes of magnitude≥8 is 1573.1yrs, the probability is 0.062.
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[1] J·B·BERRiLL,R.D. DAVIS Maximum entropy and magnitude distribution. BSSA, V1 70) NO. 5, 1980. [2] W·N·DONG, A·B·BAO,and H·C·SHAH USe of maximum entropy qrinciple in earthquake recurrence relationship. BSSA, Vol. 74, No. 4, 1984. [3] W·H·K·Lee等,中国历史地震——用点过程分析模拟不完整资料集的尝试,国外地震,8,1981. -
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