利用最大熵原理估算山西地震带中强震的重现期和未来100年内中强震的发震概率

USING MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRINCIPLE TO ESTIMATE RETURN PERIODS OF MODERATE-STRONG EARTHQUAES AND PROBABILITES OF OCCURRENCE OF NODERATESTRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE NEXT 100yrs AT SHANXI SEISMIC ZONE

摘要: 本文利用最大熵原理估算了山西地震带中强震的重现期和未来100年内中强震的发震概率。经计算,五级地震的重现期是16.2年,发震概率是0.998;六级地震的重现期是64.9年,发震概率是0.777;七级地震的重现期是260.4年,发震概率是0.330;大于等于八级地震的重现期是1570.3年,发震概率是0.062。

Abstract: This paper, according to the maximum entropy principle, has estimated the return periods and the probability of occurrence of moderace-strong eathquakes at Shanxi seismic zone in the next 100 yrs. Based on the computation, it has concluded that the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 5 is 16.2. yrs. the probability of occurrence is 0.098; the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 6 is 64.9yrs, the probability is 0.777; the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 7 is 260.4yrs, the probability is 0.330; and the return period of earthquakes of magnitude≥8 is 1573.1yrs, the probability is 0.062.