应用马尔科夫模型的方法对呼和浩特-五原地震亚带危险性估计
ASSESSMENT OF HUHEHOT-WUYUAN SEISMIC SUB-ZONE RISK BY MALKOV MODEL METHOD
-
摘要: 本文运用马尔科夫模型的方法对呼和浩特-五原地震亚带的危险性进行了估计。认为该地区从1984起,十年内至少发生一次Ms≥6.3级地震的概率为50.1%;至少发生一次Ms≥6.0级地震的概率为88.1%。Abstract: In this paper, Huhehot-Wuyuan seismic sub-zone risk is assessed by Malkov model mnethod. It is considered that in this area, in the next ten years beginning from 1984, the probability of occurrence of at lest one earthquake of Ms≥6.3 is 50.1%; the probability of at lest one earthquake with Ms≥6.0 is 88.1%.
-
[1] 南开大学数学统计预报组,概率与统计预报在地震与气象中的应用,科学出版社,1978年. [2] 常克贵,应用极值理论对鄂尔多斯北缘地震危险性的估计,华北地震科学,3,2, 1985. -

计量
- 文章访问数: 1295
- HTML全文浏览量: 206
- PDF下载量: 87