河北省晋2井水位资料预报效能

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL IN JIN-2 WELL OF HEBEI PROVINCE

    摘要
  • 摘要: 利用深井动水位观测资料预报地震,已经被国内外地震学家进行深入研究,并得到了许多珍贵的震例资料。分析了1990年以来晋2井动水位原始观资料,结果显示,在该井附近中强地震前会出现多次阶变(组)异常。通过贝叶斯估算检验得到理论验证,总结出的预报指标在其后的2次地震中得到实际应用。

     

    Abstract: In this paper,dynamic water level data of Jin-2 well since 1990 are analyzed.The result shows that repeated stepping (group) anomalies appear before the occurrence of moderate earthquake in the surrounding area of the well.Predication index are summarized and verified using Bayesian hypothesis testing and applied in the prediction of two earthquakes occurred later.

     

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