摘要:
1984年7月新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府根据自治区地震局的建议向社会发布了一次短期地震预报,该预报是在多种监测手段存在中期异常的背景下出现了油水井喷涌型异常后发布的。结果造成了一次虚报。#br#事后对这次发布短期预报的主要依据——油水井自喷异常进行了研究,结果表明,这次喷涌型异常其恢复水位随时间变化的规律与以前的震例不同,而且与作者提出的喷涌型前兆理论相违背,这表明,由作者前兆理论导出的异常恢复水位随时间对数变化的单一线性规律,可能是判定真伪喷涌型前兆的依据。#br#这次非地震的喷涌异常,估计与距异常井约两公里的两口废油井高压注液有关,其机理类似于注水诱发地震。对此无震异常恢复水位曲线的解释表明,距井一定距离的水层中可能存在着一条断层。
Abstract:
In July 1984, the People's Govermemt of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region issued a short-term earthquake prediction to society based on the propose of the Autonomous Region Seismological Bureau.The prediction was issued after the emerge of spouting-type abnormaly of underground water in oil-water wells, based on that many precursor methods had revealed mid-term abnormalies at the same time.As a result, it produced one false alarm of earthouake.#br#After the event, we researched the main foundation of the prediction——the spouting-type abnormaly of underground water in oil water well.It was pointed out that the variable curve of recovered level of the spouting-type abnomaly with time is distinct from that of previous earthquakes and violates the precursor theory of spoutingtype abnormaly proposed by the authors.It was presented that the single linear law of recovered level with time introduced by the procursor theory is possibly a foundation to distinguish the true precursor abnormaly from the false.#br#This non-earthquake spouting-type abnormaly may connect with the injected liquid of excessive pressure of other two disused wells (the two disused wells and the spouting wells are about 2 km apart).Its mechamism is similar to that of induced eartoquakes by water injection.The explanation for the recovered level curve of such non-earthouake spouting abnormaly showed that there is a fault at a distance from the spouting well.
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