应用极值理论对鄂尔多斯北缘地震危险性的估计

AN APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY OF EXTREME VALUES TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE RISK OF NORTHERN MARGIN OF EERDOSI

摘要: 本文运用极值理论对鄂尔多斯北缘地震危险性作了估计。认为该地区从1984年起,在未来的五年内发生6.0级左右地震的可能性较大。
文中对极值理论作了较详细的理论推导,通过对分布函数检验的计算,初步认为:基于一定资料建立起来的数学模型,即极值重指数分布函数不但必须进行检验,而且对其赖以成立的两个假定(指震级频率分布和泊松分布)也必须进行检验。只有这样运用通过检验关的数学模型进行适当的外推计算得出的结果才是可信的。

Abstract: The earthquake risk of the northern margin of Eerdosi has been estimated by statistica theory of extreme values in this paper.It is greatly possible that an earthquake of Ms 6.0 or so will occur during the coming five years from 1984.
In this paper, the theory of extreme values has been derived in detail.Having calculated the distribution function, the auther has suggested that it is necessary to test not only the mathematical model based upon certain data, that is, the quadratic exponent distribution function of extreme values but also two given conditions (the frequency distribution of earthquake magnitudes and Poisson Distribution).As a result, the conclusion from moderate extrapolation will be reliable.