摘要:
统计物理学中,熵是表征系统微观分布的混乱程度,是系统无序度的量度,熵高则系统无序度高,比较均匀,熵低则系统有序度高,不均匀性强。地震的孕震过程就是从无序到有序的演化过程。震级熵在孕育过程中的不同阶段其变化特征不同,利用地震前震级熵的变化特征来提取孕震信息,从而可以估计未来发生地震的可能时段。
本文利用最大熵原理,推导了连续型随机变量震级熵的表达式,计算了华北地区十一次中强震前后ML≥2.0级地震的震级熵,计算结果表明,在地震前10个月到34个月前,震级熵开始出现低值异常,随后震级熵回升,在回升途中发震,因此震级熵的低值异常是地震前的一个重要特征。
关键词:
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最大熵原理 /
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震级 /
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有序度 /
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耗散结构
Abstract:
Entropy shows the systematic microdistributed chaotic degree in the statistics, and it is the mensuration of systematic disordered degree.The higher the entropy is, the higher the systematic disordered degree is,and the system is comparatively uniform.The lower the entropy is, the higher the systematic ordered degree, and the systematic inhomogeneity is high.A seismic preparation process is a process from disordered state to ordered. The variational characteristics of magnitude entropy are different in a seismic preparation process.Bassd on the variational characteristics of magnitude entropy before earthquakes, the seismic information can be extracted.Therefore the occurrence time interval of future earthqukes can be estimated.
The author, basing on the maximum entropy principle, derived the magnitude entropy formula of continuous random variable, and calculated the magnitude entropy of Ml ≥ 2.0 earthquakes occurred in Xinding basin in 1986-1991.The calculated results indicated that the magnitude entropy showed a low value anomaly before the M 6. 1 and 5.7 earthquakes and the earthquakes occurred in the recovery process of magnitude entropy.Therefore the low value anomaly of manitude entropy is an important characteristic before earthquakes.
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