综合短临前兆信息与地震发生时间的预测
THE COMPREHENSIVE SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PRECURSORY INFORMATION AND PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE TIME
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摘要: 本文在华北震例资料的基础上,从系统整体演变的观点对M>5级地震前半年内的13个指标进行了追踪分析研究,计算了综合信息量参数P,在P随时间演变的过程中提取出异常变化优势时段,并在优势段中找出P加速的时刻组成离散的时间序列建立灰色预测模型,进而预测出发震时间。Abstract: In this paper, based on the data of earthquake examples in North China, a tracing study of 13 indexes within half a year before M>5 earthquakes is madet the dominant time interval of anomalous variation is extracted in the course of P evolution with time, and in the dominant time interval we can find the time of P acceleration to form time sequence and to establish a grey prediction model t and then the earthquake occurrence time is predicted.
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[1] 1 阇硕愚.系统科学导引.北京,地震出版社,1988.
2 邓聚龙.灰色系统.北京,国防工业出版社,1985.
3 黄雪范.华北强震的灰色预测.中国地震,1987, 3 (2). -

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