摘要:
在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的"因",即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、b值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的"果",即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括"地震窗口"、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震4要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。
Abstract:
Based on the systematic analysis of the scientific.train of thought of the present various seismometry earthquake prediction methods, it is considered that the seismomptry earthquake prediction methods can be basically divided into two kinds. One bine is that some occurred earthquakes are regarded as the "cause" of coming earthquakes, that is as the occurred earthquakes produce effect on regional stress fields, which result in the occurrence of relatively strong earthquake. This kind includes relatively more prediction methods such as gap, belt, b-value, earthquake migration, correlation earthquakes and other methods derived by them. The other kind is that some occurred earthquakes are regarded as the "result" of the strengthening of regional stress fields, that is, the occurred earthquakes are one reflection of the strengthening Process of regional stress fields, and the coming earthquakes are not certainly the result caused by the occurred earthquakes. This kind includes the methods such as "seismic window", small earhquake group activity etc. In the first kind, all the prediction methods try to extract the coming earthquake's information horn earthquake three elements, and the concrete way of doing that is to use a certain profile of multidimentional space of earthquake three elements. In order to extract comprehensive information from multidimentional space of all the factors of seismic activity, we add a breaking plane orientation to each earthquake to form the fourth earthquake element, and based on the fourth earthquake element, the function of seismic comprehensive effect field is established. The function of seismic comprehensive effect field includes many kinds of scientific train of thoughts and prediction experience of seismometry seismic prediction methods, thus it can form the comprehensive prediction method of seidstnometry.
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