COMPREHENSIVE RECOGNITION AND ANALYSIS OF PRECUSORY ANOMALIES OF SUBSURFACE FLUID IN TANGGU NO. 18 WELL
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摘要: 分别使用模糊识别法、统计识别法及速率识别法对塘沽18号井天然气逸出量、溢油量和水位三项前兆观测数据进行综合分析处理,识别出震中距500Km范围内MS >4.5级地震前的中短期前兆异常,并对异常特征进行了综合分析,得出了相应的经验关系式。据对已发生的地震样本进行统计检验的结果,中期或短期映震率可达80%以上、结果表明,利用单井多项前兆对比观测可提高地震综合预报的能力,并为前兆机理及地震孕育过程的研究提供有益的观测数据。Abstract: In this paper, by fuzzy recognition method,statistical recognition method and rate recognition method respectively, the observed precusory data of escaped quantity of natural gas,the escaped oil quantity and water level have been comprehensively analyzed, the mid-term precusory anomalies before the Ms ≥ 4.5 earthquakes occurred within an epicentral distance of 500 km have been recognized.the anomalies characteristics have been comprehensively analyzed,and the corresponding empirical relationship has been obtained.According to the statistic and check result of the samples of earthquakes occurred, the mid-term or short-term earthquake-response rate can reach 80% or more.The result showed that the comparison observation of muti-items of precusors at one well caru raise the ability of comprehensive prediction of earthquakes, and can provide useful observed data for the studies of precu-sor mechanism and seismogenic process.
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