摘要:
在分析了首都圈地区(38.5°~41°N,113°~120°E)中强以上地震前地震活动特征的基础上,总结出了本区中强以上地震前地震活动的普遍性特征,应用孕震模型对地震活动异常进行综合分析,给出了应用地震活动异常进行地震预报的物理基础。文中还提出了应用中期地震活动异常进行预报的综合判别指标,当其达到给定阈值时,再考虑地质构造、中强以上地震发生的自然概率、大震后的减震作用、中期地震活动异常的分布及其预报效能等因素,给出二维的综合概率分布图,把概率值较高的地区作为未来一、二年中强以上地震的危险区。此外还进行了震级、时间预测方面的研究。
Abstract:
Basing on the analysis of the characteristics of the seismic activity before the moderately strong and the larger earthquakes occurred in the Capital Circle area (35.5°一41°N,113°~120°E),this paper sums up the universal characteristics of the seismic activity before the moderately strong and the larger earthquakes in this areaa, makes a comprehensive analysis of seismic activity anomalies by seismogenic model and gives the physical basis of earthquake prediction by seismic activity anomalies.This paper also proposed the comprehensive distinguishing index of earthquake prediction by mid-term anomalies of seismic activity When it reaches the given threshold value, then according to the geologic structure, the natural probability of occurrence of moderately strong and the larger earthquakes, the earthquake-reducing action after a large earthquake, the distribution of mid-term amomalies of seismic activity and its prediction effectiveness, the two-dimmensional comprehensive probability distribution map can be given,the area with higher probability value can be considered as a risk area of a moderatly strong or larger earthquake in the coming one or two years.Furthermore, the study of the magnitude and time prediction has been made.
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