Abstract: In this paper, based on variation of time and space of historical and recent seismic activity in Chengde area, the characteristics of the earthquakes in Chengde area where the level of seismic activity is relatively low are analyzed, and the maximum likelihood of site risk is estimated according to site affected intensity, the seismic risk in Chengde area in the future 50 years is estimated in the light of the affected intensity of the historical earthquakes in Chengde area.