综合异常指数方法在华北地区地震短期预测中的应用研究
- 1. 河北省地震局, 河北石家庄 050021;
- 2. 河北省临城县地震台, 河北临城 054300
基金项目:
国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004BA601B01-01-01)
作者简介:
平建军(1962-),男(汉族),河北高邑县人,河北省地震局副研究员,主要从事地震综合分析预测与研究工作.
- 收稿日期:
2006-03-01
- 刊出日期:
2006-06-15
摘要: 在系统分析并筛选出华北地区地震频度、地震活动标度、mf值、调制比、b值、D值、η值、地震活动强度熵和地震活动时间熵等映震较好的9项测震学参数基础上,应用综合异常指数方法,分别计算了它们各自的地震异常指数时序值,进而合成得到华北地区测震学综合异常指数时序曲线,通过研究其地震短期异常特征,给出了华北地区ML≥5.8地震短期综合预测的判据指标,经R值评分检验表明,该指标具有较好的地震预测效能。
APPLICATION OF SYNTHETIC ANOMALY INDEX METHOD IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE IN NORTH CHINA
- 1. Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
- 2. Lincheng Seismostation, HEA, Lincheng 054300, Hebei Province, China
- Received Date:
2006-03-01
- Publish Date:
2006-06-15
Abstract: Based on systematic analysis,nine seismometry parameters that response earthquakes well in North China are selected,which are seismic frequency,seismicity scale,mf-value,b-value,D-value,η-value,seismicity intensity entropy and seismicity time entropy.Using synthetic anomaly index method,we calculated their seismic anomaly index values separately and synthesized these values into a chronogenesis curve.After studying its short-term anomaly characteristics to earthquakes,the criterion index for ML≥5.8 earthquakes in North China is obtained.The R-value test indicts that it has good prediction effect.
平建军, 孙佩卿, 冯向东, 贾炯, 李满喜. 综合异常指数方法在华北地区地震短期预测中的应用研究[J]. 华北地震科学, 2006, 24(2): 40-45.
| 引用本文: |
平建军, 孙佩卿, 冯向东, 贾炯, 李满喜. 综合异常指数方法在华北地区地震短期预测中的应用研究[J]. 华北地震科学, 2006, 24(2): 40-45.
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PING Jian-jun, SUN Pei-qing, FENG Xiang-dong, JIA Jiong, LI Man-xi. APPLICATION OF SYNTHETIC ANOMALY INDEX METHOD IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE IN NORTH CHINA[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2006, 24(2): 40-45.
| Citation: |
PING Jian-jun, SUN Pei-qing, FENG Xiang-dong, JIA Jiong, LI Man-xi. APPLICATION OF SYNTHETIC ANOMALY INDEX METHOD IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE IN NORTH CHINA[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2006, 24(2): 40-45.
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