延怀盆地构造特征及未来地震危险性评价

TECTONIC CHARACTERISTICS OF YANHUAI BASIN AND EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL SEISMIC RISK

摘要: 本文从延怀盆地的地质构造特征出发,依据近期各断层的滑动速率,由震级-时间可预测模型,计算了各断层的未来地震危险性。结果表明,未来延矾盆地北缘断裂的地震震级最大,预测的发震时间在该区域也是最早,而南口山前断裂未来发生地震的概率最大。

Abstract: Based on the tectonic characteristic of Yanhuai Basin and recent slip velocity of each fault,the future seismic risk of each fault is evaluated with magnitude-time prediction model.The results show that the potential seismic risk on the northern part of Yanfan Basin Fault is the heaviest,and earthquake will take place earliest,but the seismic probability on the fault before Nankou Mountain is the biggest.