THE SEISMICITY ANOMALIES THREE MONTH BEFORE STRONG EARTHQUAKES AND ITS PRIMARY DETERMINATION
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摘要: 对华北地区1970年以来发生的5级以上地震逐个进行分析研究,总结了每次地震震前的异常地震活动特点,进而寻找强震前三个月共性的地震活动异常特征。最后用物元分析方法,对地震强度预测综合评判模型进行了初步研究,并建立了初步的综合物元预测模型。Abstract: the earthquakes above M5 occurred in north China since 1970 is studied respectively.In order to find the common character of seismicity anomalies three months before strong events,the feature of seismicity anomalies before each event is summarized.Finally,the model of comprehensive determination for seismic intensity is preliminarily studied and established.
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[1] 蔡文.物元模型及其应用[C].北京: 科学技术文献出版社.1994. [2] 蒋淳,陆远忠,等.地震活动中期预测指标研究及其空间图像演化[J].地震, 1999(1): 65~70. [3] 蒋淳,田山,等.中强地震预报综合评判物元模型及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践.1998(1): 135~138. -

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