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摘要: 分析了1980年1月1日至1999年12月31日华北地区缺震曲线、4级地震频度、4级地震连续平静天数异常对华北地区中强、强震的预报效能,发现这三个参数的报对率在58%~61%之间,虚报率在28%~33%之间,R>R0,这三个参数有较好的预报效果。Abstract: The earthquake-lack curve from Jan.1,1980 to Dec.31,1999,frequency and continuous calm time of M4 earthquake are analyzed,and its prediction ability for medium and strong earthquakes is studied.The results show that the successful rate of prediction to the three parameters is between 58% to 61%,false rate is in 28% to 33%,and R>R0.Thus the three parameters have good prediction effect.
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Key words:
- North China area /
- seismological parameters /
- prediction effect
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[1] 国家地震局预测预防司.测震学分析预报方法[R], 北京: 地震出版社, 1997. -

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