地倾斜地震前兆异常的概率综合
THE PROBABILISTIC SYNTHESIS OF SEISMIC PRECURSORY ANOMALIES FOR GROUND TILT
-
摘要: 对河北省及邻近地区9个地倾斜台站12年的观测资料用调和分析法和周期滤波法进行全程处理,用统一的标准提取异常信息,在此基础上计算出各个单台的对应地震的概率增益,再进行单台综合和多台综合。结果表明,概率综合曲线上升超0.05,转折之后半年内有Ms≥4.8级地震发生。Abstract: Over 12 years ground tilt data observed in the 9 seismostation in Hebei province and its adjacent area are processed with the methods of harmonic analysis and periodical filtering.We first extract anomalies with the uniform standard,then calculate the probability's increasing for each seismostation corresponding to earthquakes,at the end we make one station synthesis and mulit station synthesis.The results show that when the probability synthesis curve exceeds 0.05,an Ms≥4.8 earthquake will occur in half a year.
-
Key words:
- ground tilt /
- seismic precursor /
- seismic probability /
- periodicalva riation
-
[1] 1 吴翼麟.倾斜固体潮振幅因子γ值动态变化的物理意义.地壳形变与地震, 2, 1985.
2 陈绍绪,等.华北地区地倾斜中短期地震前兆识别及预报方法研究.地壳形变与地震, 19, 4, 1999.
3 Keiiti Aki, A Probabilistie Synthesis of Precursory Phenomena,《Earthquake Prediction》, 4, 566~573.
4 浙江大学数学系.概率论与数理统计.北京: 人民教育出版社, 1979. -
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 1593
- HTML全文浏览量: 328
- PDF下载量: 100
下载:
