华北水氡异常与地震关系的Bayes判别分析
BAYES DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE RADON ANOMALIES AND EARTHQUAKES IN NORTH CHINA
-
摘要: 选取华北地区1 990-1 998年8月较完整的水氡观测资料,笔者采用x2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用笔者建立的Bayes判别分析方法,对该地区水氡异常与中强震活动性的关系进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的有震报准率c为0.71,预报占时率b为0.33,R值可达0.38;外推有震报准率c为0.5,时空占有率0.05,R值为0.45,能够正确预测1 998年1月10日张北6.2级地震;整个时段的有震报准率为0.67,预报占时率b为0.27,R值为0.4。Abstract: A Bayes discriminant analysis and a x2-test for earthquake precursory identification are applied to the radon data obtained from 1990 to 1998 at 10 observatory stations in North China in the paper.The anomalies of radon are obtained and used for the tests in retrospect and extrapolating forecasts of medium and stroneg earthquakes in the region.When the risk level Kdn=4 is taken,5 in 7 earthquakes can be correctly identified during the retrospect time.The forecasting time interval is 33% of the total and capability of forecast R=0.38;1 in 2 earthquakes,the January 10,1998 Zhangbei Earthquake with magnitude 6.2,is correctly forecasted during the extrapolating time,in which the forecasting time interval is 5% of the total and R=0.45.R=0.40 can be obtained during the whole time interval.
-
[1] 1 Lachenbruch P A,判别分析,李从珠译.北京: 群众出版社.1985.199
2 Guagenti E G, Scirocco F, A discussion of seismic risk including precursors, B.S.S.A., 1980, 70(6), 2245~2251
3 王碧泉,陈祖荫.模式识别理论、方法和应用.北京: 地震出版社, 1989.375
4 许绍燮.震兆分析一例, 见《地震战线》编辑部编.地震技术资料汇编.1973.20~23
5 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专集).国家地震局科技监测司编辑.北京: 学术书刊出版社.1989.586~590 -
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 1364
- HTML全文浏览量: 104
- PDF下载量: 92
下载:
