摘要: 选取华北地区1 990-1 998年8月较完整的水氡观测资料,笔者采用x2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用笔者建立的Bayes判别分析方法,对该地区水氡异常与中强震活动性的关系进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的有震报准率c为0.71,预报占时率b为0.33,R值可达0.38;外推有震报准率c为0.5,时空占有率0.05,R值为0.45,能够正确预测1 998年1月10日张北6.2级地震;整个时段的有震报准率为0.67,预报占时率b为0.27,R值为0.4。
BAYES DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE RADON ANOMALIES AND EARTHQUAKES IN NORTH CHINA
- Center for Analysis And Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
- Received Date:
- Publish Date:
Abstract: A Bayes discriminant analysis and a x2-test for earthquake precursory identification are applied to the radon data obtained from 1990 to 1998 at 10 observatory stations in North China in the paper.The anomalies of radon are obtained and used for the tests in retrospect and extrapolating forecasts of medium and stroneg earthquakes in the region.When the risk level Kdn=4 is taken,5 in 7 earthquakes can be correctly identified during the retrospect time.The forecasting time interval is 33% of the total and capability of forecast R=0.38;1 in 2 earthquakes,the January 10,1998 Zhangbei Earthquake with magnitude 6.2,is correctly forecasted during the extrapolating time,in which the forecasting time interval is 5% of the total and R=0.45.R=0.40 can be obtained during the whole time interval.