贾炯, 刁桂苓, 平建军, 张瑞芳, 王梅德, 郭学增, 于仁宝. 首都圈地区地震时间序列的最大熵谱分析方法及地震危险性预测[J]. 华北地震科学, 2008, 26(2): 7-11.
引用本文: 贾炯, 刁桂苓, 平建军, 张瑞芳, 王梅德, 郭学增, 于仁宝. 首都圈地区地震时间序列的最大熵谱分析方法及地震危险性预测[J]. 华北地震科学, 2008, 26(2): 7-11.
JIA Jiong, DIAO Gui-ling, PING Jian-jun, ZHANG Rui-fang, WANG Mei-de, GUO Xue-zeng, YU Ren-bao. MAXIMUM ENTROPY SPECTRUM ANALYSIS TO THE SEISMIC TIME SERIES AND SEISMIC RISK PREDICTION IN CAPITAL AREA[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2008, 26(2): 7-11.
Citation: JIA Jiong, DIAO Gui-ling, PING Jian-jun, ZHANG Rui-fang, WANG Mei-de, GUO Xue-zeng, YU Ren-bao. MAXIMUM ENTROPY SPECTRUM ANALYSIS TO THE SEISMIC TIME SERIES AND SEISMIC RISK PREDICTION IN CAPITAL AREA[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2008, 26(2): 7-11.

首都圈地区地震时间序列的最大熵谱分析方法及地震危险性预测

MAXIMUM ENTROPY SPECTRUM ANALYSIS TO THE SEISMIC TIME SERIES AND SEISMIC RISK PREDICTION IN CAPITAL AREA

  • 摘要: 利用最大熵谱分析方法和最大熵原理方法,对首都圈(北纬38°~42°,东经113°~120°)1484年以来发生5.0级以上地震的时间序列资料进行了分析,结果表明,首都圈地区历史上5.0级以上地震存在12.9年的卓越周期,并且在今后50年内,发生5.0≤Ms<6.0和6.0≤Ms<7.0地震的概率分别是0.9907和0.6916,发生7.0≤Ms<8.0地震的概率较低,只有0.2564发生Ms≥8.0地震的概率最低,仅为0.0718。

     

    Abstract: The time series data of over M5.0 earthquakes since 1484 in Capital area are analyzed with maximum entropy spectrum analysis and maximum entropy principle method.The results show that there is a 12.9 years predominant cycle in the series.The probability for 5.0≤Ms6.0 and 6.0≤Ms7.0 earthquake in the next 50 years is 0.9907 and 0.6916 respectively.The probability for 7.0≤Ms8.0 earthquake is relatively lower, just 0.2564.The probability for Ms≥8.0 earthquake is the lowest, merely 0.0718.

     

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