Abstract: Based on the historical earthquake damage data with earthquake magnitude greater than 5 from 1976 to 2020, we calculated the evaluation models of injuries and deaths of earthquake disasters in Yunnan Province by linear fitting and polynomial fitting methods. The correlation between earthquake casualties and earthquake magnitude, intensity, elevation, slope, relief and forest cover in Yunnan Province was analyzed. It is found that the casualties are mainly affected by intensity, magnitude, elevation, relief, slope and forest cover with earthquake magnitude between 5 and 7. When the earthquake magnitude is between 7 and 8, the casualties are mainly affected by intensity, magnitude, elevation and relief, and have little correlation with slope and forest cover. The models can be suitable for forecasting the casualties of earthquake disasters in Yunnan province by testing linearity of regression the real injuries and the calculating injuries by evaluation models.