THE STUDY FOR AFTERSHOCK PREDICTION——NATURAL ANALOGISM

We present a new method to predict aftershocks——natural analogism. Based on 85 earthquake sequences stored on disks, the distribution of strain energy release within the initial three days after a newly ocurred earthquake is compared with that of many known earthquake sequences one by one, and the most similar known earthquake is determined with Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Based on this known thquake, the coming aftershocks of a newly occurred earthquake sequence can be estimated. Some examples are given and a few questions are discussed in the paper.