USING MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRINCIPLE TO ESTIMATE RETURN PERIODS OF MODERATE-STRONG EARTHQUAES AND PROBABILITES OF OCCURRENCE OF NODERATESTRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE NEXT 100yrs AT SHANXI SEISMIC ZONE

This paper, according to the maximum entropy principle, has estimated the return periods and the probability of occurrence of moderace-strong eathquakes at Shanxi seismic zone in the next 100 yrs. Based on the computation, it has concluded that the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 5 is 16.2. yrs. the probability of occurrence is 0.098; the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 6 is 64.9yrs, the probability is 0.777; the return period of earthquakes of magnitude 7 is 260.4yrs, the probability is 0.330; and the return period of earthquakes of magnitude≥8 is 1573.1yrs, the probability is 0.062.