AN APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY OF EXTREME VALUES TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE RISK OF NORTHERN MARGIN OF EERDOSI

The earthquake risk of the northern margin of Eerdosi has been estimated by statistica theory of extreme values in this paper.It is greatly possible that an earthquake of Ms 6.0 or so will occur during the coming five years from 1984.
In this paper, the theory of extreme values has been derived in detail.Having calculated the distribution function, the auther has suggested that it is necessary to test not only the mathematical model based upon certain data, that is, the quadratic exponent distribution function of extreme values but also two given conditions (the frequency distribution of earthquake magnitudes and Poisson Distribution).As a result, the conclusion from moderate extrapolation will be reliable.