AN ATTEMPT AT ESTIMATING SEISMIC RISK

In this paper, according to the triangulation and the crossing-fault survey data, several main fault's slip rates and directions are calculated by means of inversion of dislocation in Tangshan, Beijing and Huailai area. The results fit in with the fault stress field which is calculated by FEM, and from that weobtain three results: (1)On the fault plane, the more the fauJt slip rates are, the higher the stresses are, and vice versa; (2)The fault slip direction is in accordance to the fault stress field direction, which is calculated by FEM; (3)The fault shallow slip is consitent with the deep one when the crossing-fault's line-length variations are linear, and at the same time the fault shallow slip rates are larger. It means to be dangerous for earthquake to occur in the future.