RESEARCHES ON THE PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF NEW GENERATION EXPERT SYSTEM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

In the paper, a new generation expert system for earthquake prediction (NGESEP) is tested by 40 earthquake cases. The contour method and certainty distribution map method are introduced to express the spatial distribution of earthquake occurrence certainty, and the features of two methods are comm-pared. We also analyse the forecast results of NGESEP for the epicenter, time, and magnitude of earthquakes. Results show that the expert system is efficient to forecast the occurrence time, epicenter and magnitude of earthquakes.