A PROBABILITY JUDGEMENT APPLIED TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

From various seismicity factors to describe the future seismic tendency, the probabilistic judgement for future seismic risk has been obtained by the estimation of the seismicity parameters of different time period with Bayias model based on the determination of the judgement function for each samples group.The result indicates that the seismogenic process could be early shown by seismicity factors in North China.Therefore, it is one of the feasible way to improve the level of the earthquake prediction to follow the track and study of the seismicity factors.At the same time, the result has been examined with the generalized Mahalanobis statistic moment.It is proved by the examination that the future seismic tendency could be estimated by the seismicity parameters selected as the precursors.