A METEOROLOGICAL METHOD OF SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES

This paper has studied the distribution characteristics of ground temperature anomalous variation in shallow layer half a year to one year before the strong earthquakes and the characteristics of air pressure and air temperature several days to one month before earthquake. Based on this, a meteorological method of short-term and imminent prediction of strong earthquakes has been suggested. The back-groung anomaly of strong earthquakes has been determined according to that the distance average of shallow ground temperature (0.8m-3.2m deep temperature) showed normal distance average with a certain amplitude, lasting for more than 6 months before strong earthquakes and to the temperature -rising center given by distance average isoline. Generally speaking, the temperature-rising center is the epicenter of the coming earthquakes, based on this, the variational amplitude and distribution characteristics of air pressure and air temperature in the temperature-rising center of shallow ground temperature is analyzed. It is found by studies that, in the temperature-rising area of ground temperature, the variational amplitude of monthly average air pressure is maximum in one month period before earthquake. The distance average center of air pressure is basically consistent with the tempreture-rising center of ground temperature. Along the strike of tectonic zone showed a maximum gradient area of air pressure variation;the general circulation of atmosphere showed sudden variation, the air pressure at one-station usually showed continuouse variation, showing a continuous falling and rising process, its low value generally reached the lowest value of the average air pressure on the same day over the years, with its variational amplitude being over 11 hpa. According to the studies of earthquake examples, three judgement indexes of background anomalies of strong earthquakes and three imminent earthquake prediction indexes, with magnitude being6.0, have been put forward.