EVALUATION ON THE INJURED AND DIED PERSONNEL FROM EARTHQUAKES IN COMING TEN YEARS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF HEBEI PROVINCE

In this paper, the analysis results of the personnel vulnerability model, the houses vulnerability andseismic risk are used to study the injured and died caused by coming earthquakes. The paper presented(1) the expected value of the injured and died personnel from the earthquakes in coming 10 years in theTownships in the working areas (114°-117°east longitude, 39-41° north latitude, not including Beijing, Tianjin and Shanxi areas), the expected value of the rate of the injured and died: (2) the expectedvalue of the total of the injured and the died and the expected value of the average rate of the injured andthe died in the working area; (3)the number of the died and the injured in the earthquake once the workingarea is stricken by earthquakes with intensity VI, VII, VIII, IX and X in each Township: (4) thetotal number of the injured and the died once earthquakes with intensity VI, VII, VIII, IX and X occurin the working area.