Probabilistic prediction model of life loss described by dead degree

Based on the discussion of the reasonableness on describing the disaster of the strong earthquake by the dead degree, the probability curves of the different dead degree of the different tine periods in future for various regions have been obtained by the probability model and the related data in accordance with recent precision of the earthquake disaster data' At the same time the spatial distribution of the dead degree in coming 10 and 50 years with 10% ultra-probability of the northern part of North China (114°-117°E, 39°-41°N)have been shown by available seismic risk analysis model with the attenuation relation of the dead degree for Tangshan earthquake.