THE RECORD OF PREDICTION FOR THE DATONG YANGGAO M_S5.4 EARTHQUSAKE ON NOVEMBER 1,1999

An MS5.4 earthquake occurred in Datong Yanggao area in Shanxi Province on November 1,1999.Before this earthquake,the seismic activities in North China were analyzed and studied by seismometry method.It is found that a lack of earthquake curve appeared in North China,the sismic frequency of ML ≥ 4.0 earthquakes in North China area showed a low value anomaly,and the small earthquake activity increased in Xingtai seismic zone in June.The lack of earthquake curve and frequency curve all showed low value anomalies.Small earthquakes clustered,the frequency and creep increased near Datong in the juncture of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia provinces in June,and the Zuoyun ML 4.7 earthquake occurred on September 12,which was regarded as a signal earthquake.Base on this,the short term predictions to the occurrence time,space and magnitude of the Datong Yanggao Ms5.4 earthquake were made 19 times at various seismic situation consderation meeetings held by Center for Analysis and Prediction of Seismological Breau of Hebei Province from September 8 to October 27,1999.