A METHOD OF THE TIME PREDICTION OF COMMENCEMENT OF EARTHQUAKE FROM A ACTIVE MODEL OF GREY CONTROL SYSTEM GM (1, 1)

Basing on the GM(1, 1) model, we have chosen a set of the events, which include the events of Ms≥6.0 from 1966 to 1986 and the events of Ms≥3.5 from 1970 to 1986 in China, as the samples of model construction that predict the time of the commencement of earthquake. The solutions of the differential equation which predicts the time of the commencement of earthquake were given. The solutions referred to 4 magnitude intervals respectively, which are Ms≥7.0, 6.5≤Ms7.0, 6.0≤Ms 6.5, 5.5≤Ms6.0, are the active model f(K+1) of the ime response in the form of time function. The relation degree used to calculate the precision of the model was calculated. Predicting test of the samples was performed using these models, and a gratifying result was achived.