THE ANAILYSIS OF THE SEISMIC COMMENSURABILITY IN THE YANSHAN SEISMIC ZONE

This paper discusses the seismic commensurability in the Yaushau seismic zone and the results show that the commensurable period for the earthquakes (M ≥ 6) is 50 years aud that for the earthquakes (M ≥ 5) is 3.18 years. The correlatiou of the charaeteristes of the commensurable for the earthqua kes (M ≥ 5) in the Yaushau belt to sunspot activity and the seismic activity(M ≥ 5) in the northern part of Tanlu fault is analysed and a formula for forecasting the commensurability of the earthquakes in Yanshan belt is developed based on the commensurability characteristcs. A check for the 197b 7.8 earthquake indicates that the formula is good in stabilty and has a relative high forecasting precision, which can be used in forecasting of seismic commensurability. In this paper, the forecasting of the potential earthquakes (6M ≥ 5) is presented, which can be used as a reference in earthquake mon toting and prediction.