MAXIMUM ENTROPY SPECTRUM ANALYSIS TO THE SEISMIC TIME SERIES AND SEISMIC RISK PREDICTION IN CAPITAL AREA

The time series data of over M5.0 earthquakes since 1484 in Capital area are analyzed with maximum entropy spectrum analysis and maximum entropy principle method.The results show that there is a 12.9 years predominant cycle in the series.The probability for 5.0≤Ms6.0 and 6.0≤Ms7.0 earthquake in the next 50 years is 0.9907 and 0.6916 respectively.The probability for 7.0≤Ms8.0 earthquake is relatively lower, just 0.2564.The probability for Ms≥8.0 earthquake is the lowest, merely 0.0718.