Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on Three-dimensional Fault Source——Taking the Mabian-Yanjin Fault as an Example

Taking the Mabian-Yanjin fault as an example, this paper aims to establish a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method based on three-dimensional fault sources. First of all, according to the fault source model of the Mabian-Yanjin fault zone, the magnitude-frequency relationship of the fault source model is established by means of the principle of seismic moment balance and the transformation of the occurrence rate of the potential source region. Among them, the seismic moment balance principle comprehensively considers the magnitude-frequency relationship of characteristic earthquake model and G-R model. The Openquake software is used to calculate the seismic hazard results in the next 50 years based on four ground motion prediction models suitable for fault sources. The results show that the seismic risks of pure non-point source, fault source scheme 1 and fault source scheme 2 increase in turn, and the results obtained by using different attenuation relations are discrete to a certain extent. The calculation results based on fault sources show that the current estimation of seismic risk is on the low side. The results of this paper can provide some reference for seismic hazard analysis of three-dimensional fault sources in the future.