Correlation Between Small Earthquake Activity in Beijing Area and Significant Earthquake in Beijing and Surrounding Area

This paper analyzes the fluctuation of small earthquake activity in Beijing area since 1997. The results show that there is a certain correlation between the fluctuation characteristics of small earthquake activity in Beijing area and the significant earthquakes（M_L≥3.9）in Beijing and surrounding area. The main performance is that if the month frequency of M_L2.0～2.9 earthquakes in Beijing area is greater than 4, there is a possibility that the earthquakes with magnitude above significant will occur in Beijing and surrounding area（39.5～41.0°N, 115.0～117.6°E）within half a year, the corresponding rate is 75%, the false ratio is 25%, omission rate is 14.3%, R=0.72, R₀=0.44, it has good prediction efficiency, it may provide the prediction basis for the significant earthquake seismic analysis in Beijing and surrounding area.