The Prediction Efficiency Evaluation of Seismicity in Wulatehouqi-Linhe Area

Based on China seismic network catalog, after the integrity assessment of the catalog and to determine the threshold magnitude, the fluctuation characteristics of seismic activity in Inner Mongolia Wulatehouqi-Linhe area and the relation between seismicity and strong earthquakes in the northwestern margin of Ordos block were analyzed. The analysis shows that there is a good correspondence between the increase of earthquake frequency and the moderate strong earthquakes in the northwestern margin of Ordos block. The half year frequency of M_L ≥ 2.0 earthquakes greater than or equal to 13 can be used as a predictive index of M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquakes. The prediction time is one year after the appearance of the anomaly. The R value score test and Molchan chart test showed that the forecast performance of earthquake frequency is significant.