Research on Forecast of Expenditure Related to Disaster Based on Decomposition of the Conception of Consequence Show

This paper use the conception of "consequence show" to reflect the collective efforts of the response to natural disaster and "expenditure related to disaster" as the index of consequence show. Qualitative analysis helps to discover the three factors which effect on consequence show. Those three factors are involved in expenditure related to disaster automatically. Thus the conception of consequence show can be quantified. Use the statistic approach to calculate and summarize the change rule of the three factors so as to describe and forecast expenditure related to disaster. Thus the holistic approach of disaster becomes possible. In order to verify the feasibility of the thought above-mentioned, this paper analysis and forecast the expenditure related to disaster of Henan province 2012 based on the data of 2009-2011, and compare the result to the statistic. The research indicates that using the conception and thought of this paper could simulate the fact pretty well and forecast the near future expenditure.