AN APPLICATION AND STUDY OF THE EXTREME VALUE THEORY IN COASTAL AREAS OF FUJIAN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

A statistical study is made on the data of earthquakes in coastal areas of Fujian between 1971.1-2012.9 using the distribution function of extreme values modified by Peishan Chen et al.Then, considering regional seismic network monitoring ability and earthquake catalogue deleted aftershocks, minimum earthquake magnitude and maximum earthquake magnitude in unit time is determined.Based on the modified extreme values theory, the recurrence period in the region was calculated, the theoretical frequencies and the probability of various earthquakes which will occur up to 2015.12 in the region was estimated.The capability reflecting earthquake is analyzed.The result provides the theoretical basis for earthquake tendency analysis in coastal areas of Fujian in future.