CALCULATION OF GEOLOGICAL FACTOR AND MID-AND LONG-TERM FORECAST FACTOR OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION IN HEBEI AREA

Based on the data of latent focal region in North China seismic belt and active faults in Hebei Province, the geological factor and mid-and long-term forecast factor were determined by using the quantity method of geological data and magnitude-time model of mid-and long term prediction.The geological factor show (1) the highest values in Tangshan, Beijing, Xingtai and Handan;(2) the ratio of geological factor in three types region(Holocene, late Pleistocene and no Holocene or late Pleistocene fault activity) is about 12:4:1.The mid-and long-term forecast factor use the result of Shao Huicheng et al, considering the historical earthquakes and modern seismic data, the annual change rate of seismic moment can represent the long-term average, which can avoid the situation of obscure the real long-term seismicity by using the data of inactive or active period and reduce the the uncertainty of the results.