张立人. G-R关系在地震危险性分析中的效能[J]. 华北地震科学, 1987, 5(4): 10-18.
引用本文: 张立人. G-R关系在地震危险性分析中的效能[J]. 华北地震科学, 1987, 5(4): 10-18.
Zhang Liren. THE EFFECTS OF G-R RELATION IN THE SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1987, 5(4): 10-18.
Citation: Zhang Liren. THE EFFECTS OF G-R RELATION IN THE SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1987, 5(4): 10-18.

G-R关系在地震危险性分析中的效能

THE EFFECTS OF G-R RELATION IN THE SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS

  • 摘要: 本文对G-R关系在估计地震区、地震带的最大震级、重复率及用"缺震"原则对强震作长期预报的效能和问题进行了检验和分析,初步结果表明:1、G-R关系对最大震级的估计往往偏高。以宇津德治(1978)提出的G-R修正式可以取得与实际值较符合的结果。2、G-R关系在华北地震区、带某个活动期的重复率会对未来强震(M≥7)的预测作出偏高或偏低的估计。这种不确定性为数倍至一个数量级左右。3、"缺震"原则的预测效果不佳。

     

    Abstract: The maximum magnitude, repetition rate and the magnitude-frequeney relation are Jjiven by G-R relation which are applied to long term corthquake prediction. Their effect and defects have been tested and analysed. The preliminary results are as followsi (1) The maximam magnitude is often overestimated by G-R relation, It would be better coincident with tht data by usinR revised G-R relation byUtsu(l978),(2)The repetition rate given by G-R relation in a seismically active period often makss higher or lower estimate for eismicity in the future 100 ycars. The uncertainty is several times to an order of magnitude, (8) The effects of the magnitudc-frcguency relation are not good.

     

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