蒋春羲, 李东升, 王炜. 新一代地震预报专家系统NGESEP预报效能的初步研究[J]. 华北地震科学, 1996, 14(4): 51-57.
引用本文: 蒋春羲, 李东升, 王炜. 新一代地震预报专家系统NGESEP预报效能的初步研究[J]. 华北地震科学, 1996, 14(4): 51-57.
Jiang Chunxi, Li Dongsheng, Wang Wei. RESEARCHES ON THE PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF NEW GENERATION EXPERT SYSTEM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1996, 14(4): 51-57.
Citation: Jiang Chunxi, Li Dongsheng, Wang Wei. RESEARCHES ON THE PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF NEW GENERATION EXPERT SYSTEM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1996, 14(4): 51-57.

新一代地震预报专家系统NGESEP预报效能的初步研究

RESEARCHES ON THE PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF NEW GENERATION EXPERT SYSTEM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

  • 摘要: 利用40个地震震例对新一代地震预报专家系统NGESEP的预报效果进行检验。比较了使用信度分布图和信度等值线图两种方法预报未来发震地点的效能,分析了系统对地震三要素的预报结果,表明该系统具有较高的预报效能。

     

    Abstract: In the paper, a new generation expert system for earthquake prediction (NGESEP) is tested by 40 earthquake cases. The contour method and certainty distribution map method are introduced to express the spatial distribution of earthquake occurrence certainty, and the features of two methods are comm-pared. We also analyse the forecast results of NGESEP for the epicenter, time, and magnitude of earthquakes. Results show that the expert system is efficient to forecast the occurrence time, epicenter and magnitude of earthquakes.

     

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