地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(3)

THE MECHANISM OF SHALLOW LAYERS ANOMALY CAUSED BY GROUNDWATER AND ITS RELATED QUESTION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

摘要: 按照地下水诱发异常的机理,讨论了诱发前兆异常的干扰与识别问题,并对"降水、地下水干扰"观点提出质疑。拟定出5个诱发异常的判据。初步拟定以地下水为加卸载手段的加卸载响应比方法。提出"长、中、短、临多层次组合(耦合)式地震预报模式"。提出地震分析预报方法"同一化"研制思路。对地震地下流体学的发展方向提出了意见。

Abstract: Based on the mechanism to induce groundwater anomaly, the interferences of precursory anomaly and its recognition are discussed, and the view of "rain and groundwater interference" is questioned.5 indexes of anomaly are presented.The method we use first is loading and unloading response ratio.We also put forward a model of "long term, medium term, short term and imminent combining prediction" and a consideration of unified prediction of all kinds method.