王利兵,郭骄,郭建芳,等. 基于Welch谱分析的全球MS ≥7.0地震活动应变能周期特征[J]. 华北地震科学,2023, 41(1):59-65. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.01.008.
引用本文: 王利兵,郭骄,郭建芳,等. 基于Welch谱分析的全球MS ≥7.0地震活动应变能周期特征[J]. 华北地震科学,2023, 41(1):59-65. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.01.008.
WANG Libing,GUO Jiao,GUO Jianfang,et al. Periodic Characteristics of Strain Energy of Global MS≥7.0 Seismic Activity Based on Welch Spectral Analysis[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2023, 41(1):59-65. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.01.008.
Citation: WANG Libing,GUO Jiao,GUO Jianfang,et al. Periodic Characteristics of Strain Energy of Global MS≥7.0 Seismic Activity Based on Welch Spectral Analysis[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2023, 41(1):59-65. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2023.01.008.

基于Welch谱分析的全球MS ≥7.0地震活动应变能周期特征

Periodic Characteristics of Strain Energy of Global MS≥7.0 Seismic Activity Based on Welch Spectral Analysis

  • 摘要: 利用Welch平均法周期图谱对1700—2019年全球MS≥7.0地震的活动周期进行提取,结果显示:MS7.0~7.9地震的周期约为8 a、10 a、51 a、11 a、17 a、12 a、19 a、39 a;MS≥8.0地震的周期约为10 a、46 a、22 a、8 a、20 a。为了与太阳活动周期对比,利用傅里叶去多周期方法提取1749—2019年太阳黑子周期,显著性最高的周期约为10~11 a(平均10.9 a),其次约为90 a、67 a、8~9 a、54 a。对太阳黑子活动周期与MS 7.0~7.9、MS ≥8.0地震周期进行线性回归分析,分2种情况:其一为10个显著周期相关计算,其二为8~22 a 7个显著周期相关计算,均显示具有较高的相关性,相关系数均在0.95以上,但在7级水平地震中,前者相关系数高于后者约0.03,8级水平地震相关性基本一致。将本文提取的活动周期与前人研究结果进行综合分析,认为不同计算方法、研究对象(强震周期、太阳黑子周期、地磁主磁场周期)得到的约8 a、11 a、50 a周期是一致的,更长的周期(约80~100 a)在强震活动方面显著性不强。

     

    Abstract: We extracted the global MS ≥7.0 seismic activity period from 1700 to 2019 by using the Welch average method atlas. The results show that the earthquake period of MS7.0-7.9 earthquake is about 8 a、10 a、51 a、11 a、17 a、12 a、19 a、39 a. The earthquake period of MS ≥8.0 earthquake is about 10 a、46 a、22 a、8 a、20 a. For comparison with the solar cycle, we extracted the sunspot cycle from 1749 to 2019 by using the Fourier multi-cycle method. The significantly highest period is about 10-11 a (average 10.9 a), followed by about 90 a, 67 a, 8-9 a, 54 a. The linear regression analysis of sunspot activity cycle and MS7.0-7.9, MS≥8.0 earthquake cycle was carried out. The analysis results can be divided into two cases: one is 10 significant period correlation calculation, and the other is 7 significant period correlation calculation of 8-22 a. Both of them show very high correlation, and the correlation coefficient is above 0.95. However, the correlation value of the former is about 0.03 higher than that of the latter in MS7 level earthquakes, and the correlation of MS8 level earthquakes is basically the same. In addition, we compared the activity period extracted in this paper with the results of previous studies. The comprehensive analysis believes that the 8 a, 11 a, and 50 a periods obtained by different calculation methods and different research objects (period of strong earthquake, period of sunspot, period of geomagnetic main magnetic field) are consistent. The longer earthquake periods (approximately 80-100 a) are not significantly in strong earthquake activity.

     

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